Emergency = R × U = p × D × τ / T
In a comment article in the journal Nature, Schellnhuber and colleagues explained that to understand the climate emergency we needed to quantify the relationship between risk (R) and urgency (U).
Borrowing from the insurance industry, the scientists define risk (R) as the probability of something happening (p) multiplied by damage (D).
For example, how likely is it that sea levels will rise by a metre and how much damage will that cause.
Urgency (U) is the time it takes you to react to an issue (τ) “divided by the intervention time left to avoid a bad outcome (T)”, they wrote.
Then looking at the units of measure:
p is a number - no units
D (Damage) is in dollars
τ and T are time and cancel each other out.
So an emergency is measured in dollars.
p is a number - no units
D (Damage) is in dollars
τ and T are time and cancel each other out.
So an emergency is measured in dollars.
That is something politicians can understand.
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